Monday, 4 July 2016

Where does it all end?

My current take on the whole Labour coup is that there is no easy way out of this. Most disappointingly of all is that this has came at a time when the Tories should have been on their knees. The pound crumbling, losing the AAA credit rating, Osbourne having to finally admit there would be no surplus by 2020. Instead of a united front going in to attack a wounded and hugely flawed Tory party. Our MP's decided to go after our own leader who has a huge mandate from our membership.

From what I can tell here are all the choices, none of them play out well for Labour and all play well for the Tories and on the plus side (Personally speaking...) for Scottish Independence. 

- Tomorrow Watson manages to agree a deal with the TU's this results in Corbyn having to resign but with his policies being maintained. The membership rejects this as a coup from 172 MPs and any new leader is hindered right from the start.
- The Watson/ TU meeting has no resolution and Eagle and or Smith challenges Corbyn.

. Corbyn wins and the party splits

. Corbyn wins and the party stay in standstill.

. Corbyn loses and the majority of Labour activists leave in protest. (Unlikely) 

Party splits:
- The New Labour/SDP 2 have the second largest group of MP's ... say 120/30 but no activists and few members. Corbyn's Labour has fewer MPs than them and possibly SNP. Now have an opposition with no support election is called Tories win with Corbyn Labour a long way off as opposition SDP 2 doesnt get off the ground.

Party standstill:(Unless mass support for Corbyn)

Election is held Tories win, Corbyn never given chance to put forward a programme with full support of PLP and Labour. Regardless of deselection Labour sent into a decline that will take 10-20 years to recover. Chances of Scottish Independence increase but steep divide between England and Scotland.

I am for independence for Scotland, not just because I believe that it is the best chance for Scotland to become a more progressive and fairer society, but also that it will allow greater autonomy for nations like Wales and Northern Ireland and an opportunity for the north of England to create trade from other avenues. None of this will happen without a Labour Party capable of being united and winning elections. This includes in Scotland where a one party populous, or a Tory opposition which will drive the SNP further right.

Scotland and the UK need a strong left of centre Labour Party. The wider left has proven itself incapable of taking up any sort of coherent position to enable it to get beyond 1% of the vote.

At a time when national borders should be even less important we seem to have stumbled into a Scotland, a UK and a Europe unable of finding any source of sanity and togetherness. Sturgeon has performed admirably but the issues affecting Scotland, the UK and Europe cannot be met by one woman or one party alone. This makes the collapse of Labour all the more tragic.

It is clear to me that we must unite and support Jeremy Corbyn and enable him to make the case for deselection of his MP's in any forthcoming election and campaign on an anti austerity ticket, moving forward with an economic plan that will include large scale infrastructure rebuilding, an internationalist view of any negotiations with the EU and the development of a basic income ahead of the growing technological revolution.

If not the future may become very bleak indeed.

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